Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes announced today.

CHANGES IN TERM DEPOSIT RATES
None here either.

OCR DOUBLE IN THE NEXT ELEVEN WEEKS?
ANZ economists revised their inflation and interest rate forecasts up, with a +50bps hike in April and another +50bps hike in May, pushing the OCR from 1.00% now to 2.00% as they now see OCR reaching 2% by May – eleven weeks from now.

COMCOM REST WORKFORCE
The Commerce Commission has advised a series of adjustments to the supermarket sector, but stopped short of some of the tough measures it was considering. The supermarkets seem to have succeeded in repelling any questioning of their dominance.

ONLY +34% SINCE 2017
Auckland Council latest rating reviews ranged from +15% in the Waitemata Ward (central leafy suburb and CBD) to almost +60% on Aotea/Great Barrier Island. Overall the increase is +34%. These changes update prior levels from 2017. But they are only based on valuation levels carried over from 2020.

DAVID CUNNINGHAM JOINS THE SQUIRREL
David Cunningham, former CEO of The Co-operative Bank, will become CEO of mortgage broker Squirrel in July. Squirrel says Cunningham will succeed Squirrel founder John Bolton, who will remain closely involved in the day-to-day running of the business, as executive director and adviser. A former Westpac executive, Cunningham joined The Co-operative Bank in 2012, shortly after PSIS became a registered bank and changed its name. He led distribution and product management before becoming CEO in 2017.

SBS BANK ENVISAGES BOND ISSUE UP TO 150 MLN
SBS Bank is seeking to borrow up to $150 million through a five-year bond issue. Fixed rate senior unsecured bonds will earn investors at least 4.05% per annum. The offering opens on Tuesday, with the issuance margin and bond interest rate to be set following a bookmaking process, which is expected to be completed on March 11. The indicative issue margin range above the underlying bond base rate is 1.15% to 1.30%. . SBS bonds are expected to have a BBB+ credit rating from Fitch. SBS says the purpose of the offering is to raise funds to be used for general corporate purposes, including providing loans to SBS customers.

HOUSING CONSTRUCTION INCREASES GDP
Next week, Stats NZ will announce the Q4-2021 GDP result. It should generate minimal growth given the pandemic impositions and higher than expected inflation. But today we are making one of the last pieces of the overall puzzle – construction work completed. It was up +10% in 2021 compared to 2020, with a good push in Q4, and mainly due to new home construction. Auckland led this activity. There is still more to come before GDP data can be calculated, fourth quarter manufacturing data and current account data. In the first quarter of 2022, the industry has been grappling with shortages of personnel and materials, and costs are rising rapidly.

WHERE THE GROWTH HAS BEEN
Stats NZ also published updated data on the local digital sector, which it does every two years. It indicates that in the two years, software and services sales were $13.0 billion, up +39%, published software sales increased by +52% to 4.0 billion, IT services sales increased by +34% to $9.0 billion and computer software and services exports accounted for 17% of total ICT software and services sales, up from 19% previously.

LARGE RECOVERY
In Australia, the NAB business confidence index jumped in February and January was revised upwards. This February result is the highest reading in four months, which was well above the long-term average. During the month, the wave of the Omicron virus subsided and the momentum of late 2021 was regained. Confidence has increased in all sectors. But neither the Ukraine conflict nor the east coast flooding will have been fully reflected in February’s data and both could have more effect in the coming months.

THE REVENGE OF TIME
Last week a major rainstorm hit NSW but missed Sydney. This week it hit the town full power. Major floods are significant and will have broad economic impacts.

BROAD RETREAT
Japan’s current account slid further towards a larger deficit as the cost of imports far exceeded its exports in Q4-2021. It was their biggest deficit since 2014 and their second biggest deficit ever. They normally show surpluses.

GOLD IN LITTLE NET CHANGE
At the start of Asian trading, gold is now at US$1993/oz and down -US$1/oz from the same time yesterday. It moved a little in between though and touched US$2,000 in the morning in London.

EVEN MORE SOLD SHARES
In a massive sell-off on Wall Street, the S&P500 closed down -3.0% in Monday trading. The Dow was down -2.4%, the NASDAQ -3.6%. At the opening of trade in Tokyo today, they are down -0.2%. Hong Kong is up +0.9% after yesterday’s huge decline, and Shanghai is down -0.2%. The ASX200 is only down -0.1% in early Tuesday afternoon trading. The NZX50 is down -1.0% at the end of the session.

SWAPS JERKED HIGHER
We don’t have today closing swap rate again. They are likely to rise sharply on ANZ’s overblown view that local fares are rising rapidly. The rate for 90-day bank bills rose by +1 bp to 1.35%. Australia’s benchmark 10-year government bond rate is up +12 basis points to 2.20%. The China Govt 10yr remains unchanged at 2.85%. The New Zealand 10-year government bond rate is now at 2.81% (up +8 basis points) and significantly higher than the previous RBNZ patch for this 10-year rate at 2.79% (in increase of +3 basis points). The US government ten year is now at 1.76%. That’s up +7 basis points from the same time yesterday. Investors are confident the Fed will raise rates next week as earnings are under threat.

SOFTISH IN NZ DOLLAR
The Kiwi Dollar is -½c lower at this time yesterday, now at 68.4 USc. Against the Aussie, we are at 93.3 AUc. Against the euro, we fell slightly to 63.3 euro cents. This means the TWI-5 is now at 73.7.

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BITCOIN HOLDS BUT VOLATILE
Bitcoin was little changed from this time yesterday, now at US$38,173 and down a minor -0.7%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high, however, at just +/- 3.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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