TradeDoubler AB Intrinsic Value Estimate (publ) (STO: TRAD)
Does the December share price for TradeDoubler AB (publ) (STO: TRAD) reflect its true value? Today we’re going to estimate the intrinsic value of the stock by taking the company’s future cash flow forecast and discounting it to today’s value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won’t be able to figure it out, read on! It’s actually a lot less complex than you might imagine.
We draw your attention to the fact that there are many ways to assess a business and, like DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are passionate about equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis template here may be something of interest to you.
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Crunch the numbers
We use the 2-step growth model, which simply means that we take into account two stages of business growth. During the initial period, the business can have a higher growth rate, and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we need to get cash flow estimates for the next ten years. Since no free cash flow analyst estimate is available, we have extrapolated the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last reported value of the company. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, and therefore the sum of those future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value. :
10-year Free Cash Flow (FCF) estimate
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
Leverage FCF (SEK, millions) | kr21.6m | 17.0 kr | 14.4 kr | kr13.0m | kr12.0m | 11.4 kr | 11.1 m kr | 10.8 kr | 10.7 m kr | 10.6 kr |
Source of estimated growth rate | Is @ -30.65% | Is @ -21.36% | Is @ -14.85% | Is @ -10.3% | Is @ -7.11% | Is @ -4.88% | Is @ -3.32% | East @ -2.22% | Is @ -1.46% | East @ -0.92% |
Present value (SEK, million) discounted at 4.8% | 20.6 kr | 15.5 kr | 12.6 kr | 10.8 kr | 9.5 kr | 8.7 kr | 8.0 kr | 7.5 kr | 7.0 kr | 6.6 kr |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = 106 m kr
After calculating the present value of future cash flows over the initial 10 year period, we need to calculate the terminal value, which takes into account all future cash flows beyond the first step. The Gordon growth formula is used to calculate the terminal value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to their present value at a cost of equity of 4.8%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2031} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = kr11m × (1 + 0.3%) ÷ (4.8% – 0.3%) = kr239m
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= kr239m ÷ (1 + 4.8%)^{ten}= 150 m kr
The total value, or net worth, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is 256 million kr. The last step is then to divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of 6.4 kroner, the company appears to be around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it’s best to take this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last penny.
Important assumptions
The above calculation is very dependent on two assumptions. One is the discount rate and the other is cash flow. If you don’t agree with these results, try the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view TradeDoubler as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 4.8%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.013. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta from globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking forward:
While important, calculating DCF ideally won’t be the only piece of analysis you’ll look at for a business. The DCF model is not a perfect equity valuation tool. Preferably, you would apply different cases and assumptions and see their impact on the valuation of the business. For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk-free rate can have a significant impact on valuation. For TradeDoubler, you need to explore three fundamental elements:
- Risks: For example, we discovered 2 warning signs for TradeDoubler which you should know before investing here.
- Other high quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality stocks to get a feel for what you might be missing!
- Other environmentally friendly companies: Are you concerned about the environment and think that consumers will buy more and more environmentally friendly products? Browse our interactive list of companies thinking about a greener future to discover stocks you might not have thought of!
PS. The Simply Wall St app performs a daily discounted cash flow assessment for each OM share. If you want to find the calculation for other actions, just search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts using only unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.