Total strikeouts to bet for Lance Lynn and Zach Davies (June 3)
With a wide range of games, there are plenty of accessories to choose from. Unfortunately, betting markets are more efficient at calculating withdrawal accessory totals. Despite this, there are two striped accessories that I like today, one above and one below.
For this article, I’ll be evaluating my favorite MLB player accessories based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop Tool love. The Action Labs Player Prop tool scores each bet on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the highest possible score. I will also add my personal notes.
Below I have presented two prop bets that I play, the case for each bet, and the best books for finding odds on these player props.
MLB Pitcher Accessories Record 2021: 41-34, +2.08 Units, + 2.8% ROI
Accessories and choice of MLB player
Lance Lynn (CHW) – 7.5 strikeouts (+ 105 / -136)
|Tigers at the White Sox||White Sox (-210)|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
Lance Lynn has quietly been one of the top pitchers for the past three years. Lynn typically dives deep in games, has a decent strikeout rate, and keeps points off the scoreboard. This season, he’s 6-1, 9.74 strikeouts per nine innings, an ERA of 1.37 and an xFIP of 3.98. In addition, he averages about six innings per start.
There are a lot of teams like the Padres, Brewers and White Sox that are good and prone to grappling. Well, the Detroit Tigers are prone to strikeouts and bad. The Detroit roster is averaging 9.91 strikeouts per game, which is the worst in the league. The Tigers hitters have 11.9% more strikeouts per game than the MLB mid-team.
In a typical start, Lynn pitched for about six innings and has 6.28 strikeouts. If Lynn has a typical start today against Detroit, he won’t exceed his strikeout total. However, if you adjust Lynn’s strikeouts for the Detroit roster, he should have 7.02 strikeouts.
While Lynn could surpass his strikeout tally today, even against Detroit, he’s unlikely to hit it. If you want to win long term on strikeout props, you need to be prepared to bet against good pitchers against teams prone to strikeout. I like that Lynn has less than 7.5 strikeouts at -136 and I would bet down to -145.
Take: Lance Lynn (CHW) Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-136) (DraftKings) would play to -145
- Action lab score: 9
- Kevin Davis Score: 3
Zach Davies (CHC) – 2.5 strikeouts (-130 / -105)
|Teddy bears at Giants||Giants (-130)|
|Time||9:45 p.m. ET|
Zach Davies has not been very effective this season. After going 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA last year with the Padres, he is 2-2 and 4.65 ERA with the Cubs. Worse yet for Davies, his strikeout rate this season has dropped from 8.18 strikeouts per nine innings to just 5.75. As a result, BetMGM set Davies’ strikeout total at just 2.5 strikeouts, the lowest I’ve seen this season for a pitcher.
The opposing San Francisco Giants roster is averaging just 8.86 strikeouts per game, which is the median for MLB teams. If Davies exceeds his strikeout total, it won’t be because San Francisco has an unruly formation.
In a typical game this season, Davies is pitching for 4 2/3 innings and has just 2.69 strikeouts. However, last season, in a typical game, Davies pitched for over 5 2/3 innings and would have 5.25 strikeouts. Even with Davies at his worst with fewer innings than usual, he is expected to exceed his strikeout total tonight.
At -130, I would bet Davies to have over 2.5 strikeouts, and I would bet down to -150.
Take: Zach Davies Over 2. Strikeouts (-130) (BetMGM) would play until -150
- Action lab score: 10 (Based on more than 3 strikeouts +100)
- Kevin Davis Score: 8
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