The intrinsic value of Getinge AB (STO: GETI B) is potentially 55% higher than its share price
In this article, we will estimate the intrinsic value of Getinge AB (STO: GETI B) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Patterns like these may seem beyond a layman’s comprehension, but they are fairly easy to follow.
We generally think of a business’s value as the present value of all the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is only one evaluation measure among many, and it is not without its flaws. For those who are passionate about equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis template here may be something that interests you.
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We use what is called a two-step model, which simply means that we have two different periods of growth rate for the cash flow of the business. Usually, the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth stage. To begin with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flow. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
In general, we assume that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:
10-year Free Cash Flow (FCF) estimate
|Leverage FCF (SEK, Millions)||kr2.87b||kr3.84b||4.39 kr||kr5.06b||5.53 b||5.89 kr||6.17 kr||6.38 kr||kr6.53b||6.65 kr|
|Source of estimated growth rate||Analyst x7||Analyst x6||Analyst x3||Analyst x3||Est @ 9.24%||Est @ 6.56%||East @ 4.69%||East @ 3.38%||East @ 2.47%||East @ 1.83%|
|Present value (SEK, million) discounted at 4.6%||kr2.7k||kr3.5k||kr3.8k||kr4.2k||kr4.4k||4.5k kr||4.5k kr||kr4.4k||kr4.3k||kr4.2k|
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = kr41b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows over the initial 10 year period, we need to calculate the terminal value, which takes into account all future cash flows beyond the first step. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.3%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to their present value, using a cost of equity of 4.6%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = kr6.7b × (1 + 0.3%) ÷ (4.6% – 0.3%) = kr155b
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)ten= kr155b ÷ (1 + 4.6%)ten= kr98b
Total value, or net worth, is then the sum of the present value of future cash flows, which in this case is kr139b. In the last step, we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of 330 kr, the company appears to be quite undervalued with a 35% discount from the current share price. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it’s best to take this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last penny.
We would like to stress that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these entries, I recommend that you redo the calculations yourself and play with them. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Getinge as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes into account debt. In this calculation, we used 4.6%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 0.914. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our average beta from the industry beta of comparable companies globally, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a business. DCF models are not the alpha and omega of investment valuation. Preferably, you would apply different cases and assumptions and see their impact on the valuation of the business. For example, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically change the overall result. Can we understand why the company trades at a discount to its intrinsic value? For Getinge, we’ve put together three more things you need to assess:
- Risks: For example, we have identified 1 warning sign for Getinge that you need to be aware of.
- Management: Did insiders increase their shares to take advantage of market sentiment regarding GETI B’s future prospects? Check out our management and board analysis with information on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid trading fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app performs a daily discounted cash flow assessment for each OM share. If you want to find the calculation for other actions, just search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative documents. Simply Wall St has no position in the mentioned stocks.
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