Tesla leads on EV battery prices, regardless of hovering lithium costs
Tesla leads the way in which in electrical automotive battery prices, giving it a 10-year lead over different automakers, as rising demand for metals akin to lithium and cobalt push up the costs of automobiles. supplies, in line with a brand new evaluation.
Tesla batteries presently price 24% lower than the trade common, and he expects Tesla to keep up that lead in the long run, in line with new report from Sam Jaffe of power consultancy agency Cairn ERA. of the last decade.
Whereas that is partially because of the cheaper price Tesla pays for the battery cells, additionally it is due to the economies of scale and the work of the electrical automobile maker to cut back the prices of putting the cells into blocks. -batteries and integration of the unit within the automobile.
“The dimensions permits them to retain the benefit,” Jaffe mentioned. CNBC Wednesday (US time).
“They do not simply design across the cell…. they design round an built-in pack, ”he mentioned, including that automakers like GM and VW are doing it too,“ Tesla is doing it in a means that offers them a 10-year benefit. “
Tesla sources battery cells from its companion Panasonic in addition to from Chinese language battery producers, together with CATL. The Cairn ERA report assumes US or European manufacturing prices and doesn’t embrace CATL’s cheaper LFP batteries in its calculations, though it does point out that these prices have seemingly elevated as nicely.
In figures supplied to The Pushed, Cairn ERA signifies that Tesla pays a median of $ 142 / kWh ($ 183 / kWh) for cells (however can manufacture them for simply $ 114 / kWh) versus $ 169 / kWh ($ A218 / kWh). kWh). ) by GM and an trade common of US $ 186 / kWh (A240.kWh).
By 2030, Tesla might manufacture cells for a paltry $ 82 / kWh ($ 106 / kWh), whereas the trade common can be $ 108 / kWh ($ A140 / kWh), in line with Cairn ERA.
The numbers are considerably larger than these put ahead by BloombergNEF on the finish of 2020, which agreed that Tesla pays much less for its batteries, however put the numbers at SU $ 115 / kWh in comparison with an trade common of 137. US $ / kWh.
The report additionally indicated that in China, some costs for electrical bus batteries had already fallen under the magical US $ 100 / kWh cited by analysts as crucial for electrical autos to achieve worth parity with combustion autos.
However as Jaffe defined to The Pushed, hovering costs for battery supplies like lithium and cobalt have seen Tesla’s costs rise by 20% and much more for different battery makers.
“Prior to now three months, the world has entered a battery famine. Demand significantly exceeds provide. The identical is going on with battery supplies: lithium is up 67% and cobalt 40% this 12 months, ”Jaffe mentioned in The Pushed hit memo.
“As a result of scarcity of batteries and the rise in supplies, battery costs have skyrocketed. We imagine Tesla’s costs have gone up 20% previously three months and different automakers greater than that. “
Based on Cairn ERA, Tesla is presently making batteries for $ 187 / kWh ($ 241 / kWh) – in comparison with GM’s $ 207 / kWh ($ 267 / kWh), whereas the trade common stands at $ 246. / kWh – and can attain USD 106 / kWh by the top of the last decade.
BloombergNEF figures recommend the crossing of the $ 100 / kWh flooring might happen as early as 2023, though if the rise in battery supplies continues at its excessive degree, it might nicely push by way of to the top of the last decade. .
Jaffe believes, nonetheless, that the scarcity of supplies will probably be resolved by the top of 2022.
“The shortages and costs will probably be corrected by the top of 2022 with the commissioning of all new manufacturing capacities. Nevertheless it’s a troublesome state of affairs proper now for anybody who wants to purchase a battery, ”says Jaffe.
In September, Tesla offered a plan to cut back the kilowatt-hour price of producing battery cells by 56%. He mentioned he would achieve this by decreasing the footprint of his factories, utilizing larger capability and decrease price silicon anodes, new cobalt-free cathodes, manufacturing dry cathodes and integrating the pack into the automobile physique construction.
In the meantime, Grace Tao Lin, Tesla’s vice chairman of exterior affairs in China, weighed in on the battery swap, saying that whereas it could make sense for bigger autos akin to buses, Tesla nonetheless has was of the opinion that quick charging is one of the simplest ways. .
Publish on Chinese language social media channel Weibo, Tao Lin mentionned that whereas Tesla experimented with battery swapping in 2013, he believes that enhancing charging effectivity is one of the simplest ways to alleviate “vary anxiousness”.
Tesla’s rival Nio, which presently sells round 5,000-6,000 autos a month in China, makes use of battery swap and presently has practically 200 swap stations deliberate. Tesla – the Chinese language market chief within the premium electrical automobile phase – has round 6,000 superchargers in China.
Bridie Schmidt is a senior reporter for The Pushed, sister website of Renew the financial system. She makes a speciality of writing about new applied sciences and has been writing about electrical autos for the previous two years. She has a eager curiosity within the position zero emission transportation should play in sustainability and is a co-organizer of the Northern Rivers Electrical Automobile Discussion board.