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Home›US Options›Ruble plummets as sanctions hit, sending Russians to banks

Ruble plummets as sanctions hit, sending Russians to banks

By Brian Rankin
February 28, 2022
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MOSCOW — Ordinary Russians faced the prospect of higher prices and hampered foreign travel as Western sanctions against invading Ukraine sent the ruble plummeting, leading depositors worried queuing at banks and ATMs on Monday in a country that has seen more than one currency disaster. in the post-Soviet era.

The Russian currency plunged around 30% against the US dollar after Western countries announced unprecedented measures to block some Russian banks from the international payment system SWIFT and to restrict Russia’s use of its huge reserves of foreign currency. The exchange rate then regained ground after rapid intervention by the Russian central bank.

But economic pressure tightened as the United States beefed up sanctions aimed at tying up all Russian central bank assets in the United States or held by Americans. The Biden administration estimated the move could impact “hundreds of billions of dollars” in Russian funding.

US officials said Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Japan, the European Union and others would join the Russian central bank’s target.

“We are in uncharted territory to launch all of these nuclear sanctions options against Russia at the same time this weekend,” said Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, a banking trade group. once like this will have a very significant effect.”

Russians fearing the sanctions could deal a crippling blow to the economy have been flocking to banks and ATMs for days, with reports on social media of long queues and sold-out machines. People in some central European countries have also rushed to withdraw money from branches of Russian state-owned bank Sberbank after the Russian parent bank was hit by international sanctions.

Moscow’s public transport department warned residents of the city over the weekend that they could face problems with Apple Pay, Google Pay and Samsung Pay paying fares because VTB, another Russian bank making the subject to sanctions, manages card payments on the Moscow metro, buses and trams.

Entrepreneur Vladimir Vyaselov found that flights were blocked for his trip abroad on a student visa. He was considering driving to another country and flying from there.

“I have disagreed with the decisions of all authorities for a very long time and that is why I store all my money only in foreign currency, and I am skeptical of Sberbank, VTB, of national banks in general,” he said. he declares.

A sharp devaluation of the ruble would mean a drop in the standard of living for the average Russian, economists and analysts have said. Russians still depend on a slew of imported goods, and the prices of those items are likely to skyrocket, like iPhones and PlayStations. Foreign travel would become more expensive as their rubles would buy less foreign currency abroad. And deeper economic turmoil will arise in the coming weeks if price shocks and supply chain issues cause Russian factories to shut down due to lower demand.

“It’s going to trickle down to their economy very quickly,” said David Feldman, an economics professor at William and Mary in Virginia. “Anything imported is going to see the local cost of currency skyrocket. The only way to stop it will be heavy subsidies.

Russia has decided to produce many goods on its territory, including most of its food, to protect the economy from sanctions, said Tyler Kustra, assistant professor of politics and international relations at the University of Nottingham. He expected that some fruits, for example, which cannot be grown in Russia “will suddenly be much more expensive”.

Electronics will be a sore spot, with computers and cellphones having to be imported and costs rising, said Kustra, who studies economic sanctions. Even foreign services like Netflix might cost more, although such a company might lower its prices.

The auto sector, a major employer, is being “hit very quickly by the ban on the import of microchips and other parts,” said Chris Weafer, managing director of Macro-Advisory, a Eurasia strategy consultancy.

As long as even a few Russian banks were spared the SWIFT cut, he said, Russia would still be able to continue exporting, post modest growth this year and earn enough to subsidize or bail out big companies. or large employers.

“So it really depends critically on whether SWIFT stays open or whether that last channel is closed,” Weafer said.

On Monday, Russia’s central bank raised its key rate sharply from 9.5% to 20% in a desperate attempt to prop up the ruble and stave off a run on the banks. He also said the Moscow Stock Exchange would remain closed.

European officials have said that at least half of Russia’s estimated $640 billion hard currency stack, some of which is held outside Russia, would be crippled. This has significantly increased the pressure on the Russian currency by undermining the ability of financial authorities to support it by using reserves to buy rubles.

The ruble fell around 30% against the US dollar early on Monday, but stabilized after the central bank’s decision. Earlier, it was trading at a record high of 105.27 to the dollar, down from around 84 to the dollar on Friday night, before climbing back to 94.60.

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