NBA DFS (Saturday January 8): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
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Upper Cap: LaMelo Ball vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $ 9,500 DraftKings, $ 8,600 FanDuel
the LaMelo ball the experience has been a bit of a roller coaster lately. In his last four games he’s got two points out of 45 DraftKings and two under 26. He’s shown triple-double potential, so he’s still showing a cap. Its inconsistency allows its price to be controlled, which I love. On FanDuel, Ball’s salary has dropped very low, and now he’s giving us a 95% rating and making him one of the best options on the slate.
This game against the Bucks has by far the highest game tally on the list at 233 points. The Hornets are 1-point favorites at home, where they have an impressive 10-5 this season. The Bucks have been an impressive home defense, but they’re really struggling to keep the 3-point line. They allowed the most attempts at 3 points and the second field goals at 3 points scored per game. Ball has been much more aggressive in scoring the ball this season, having averaged 2.8 points to 3 points per game this season.
Best Value: Killian Hayes vs. Orlando Magic – $ 3,400 DraftKings, $ 3,900 FanDuel
Few eyes are going to watch the 7-30 Pistons welcome the 7-32 Magic, but there is some value we can take from this disgusting game. For starters, this match should be one of the most competitive games. Piston Guard Killian Hayes is our best playmaker. Value is hard to come by right now on this slate, but Hayes has the plus / minus thrown the highest among the pointers tonight.
The Magic are 25th in defensive standings and seventh in points allowed with 111.5 per game. Hayes actually plays better when he’s around Cade cunningham. Its rate of use is decreasing, but it is much more efficient. It’s certainly not a foreclosure value game, but the pay break Hayes offers makes it viable on this list. He will play solid minutes; let’s hope he can make his way into the 20 DraftKings points.
Upper Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Indiana Pacers – $ 9,600 DraftKings, $ 8,200 FanDuel
After being away from last night’s game, I would expect Donovan mitchell to be back in the lineup today for the second leg of this back-to-back game. Mitchell is another absurdly priced player on FanDuel tonight, where he has a 97% rating. He has an Over / Under positive in 14 of his last 16 games on FanDuel. Mitchell continues to rank third in utilization rate this season at 32.9%. He has led the Jazz in points since joining the league.
The Jazz are 4 point favorites on the road against the Pacers tonight. Not only did Mitchell sit in the last game, most of the Jazz players did. Watch the news to see which of their players will be back in the roster, and obviously make sure Mitchell is on the roster. According to the players, Mitchell could see even more use in this game. He is tied for fourth on most field goal attempts at 20.5 per game.
Best value for money: Evan Fournier at the Boston Celtics – $ 4,900 DraftKings, $ 5,600 FanDuel
I’ll be honest I don’t know what kind of revenge Evan Fournier got over the Celtics after only playing 16 games there, but I’m ready to ride the wave. For some reason seeing the Celtics makes Fournier turn a switch. In his three games already against the Celtics this season, Fournier is averaging 35.0 points while making an absurd 6.7 to 3 points per game. He scored 13.7 field goals playing 43.0 minutes per game.
The Celtics are certainly not a bad defensive team at all. They rank eighth in the defensive standings and 12th for the opposing points allowed per game. It’s not as if Fournier is having such a good season; he has been benched several times due to his below average game. He has scored 105 points against the Celtics and 514 points in total this season. That translates to 20.4% of Fournier’s points against the Celtics, which is insane.
Upper Cap: Jayson Tatum vs. New York Knicks – $ 10,400 DraftKings, $ 10,300 FanDuel
One of the league’s most disappointing teams this season has been the Celtics. However, Jayson tatum continues to play at an elite level. Since his return from COVID protocol, Tatum has had poor play and a great game. The big game came against this same Knicks team in their last clash, where Tatum scored 36 points and six scored 3 points. He finished with 65 DraftKings points, which was the second highest this season.
The Knicks have allowed the sixth-most 3-point attempt in the league. Of the 22 teams Tatum has faced this season, he averages the most 3-point attempts against the Knicks than any other team. He will have to be quite efficient once again as this game has the lowest total on the list with 208.5 points. The Knicks are ranked 29th, but Tatum has turned upside down in this game and is a contrarian payout option.
Best Value: Jae Crowder vs. Miami Heat – $ 3,800 DraftKings, $ 4,100 FanDuel
Another veteran player who seems to bring some value to the slate tonight is the Suns forward Jae crowder. Coming to a relatively low price predicted to play 30 minutes, Crowder will need to hit his 3 open points to likely bring in value. He showed DraftKings 30 points a few times earlier this month and has seen his playing time increase in his last two games. His defense will be necessary in this game.
This late night hammer presents the game with the greatest risk of blowout, especially if Jimmy butler is unable to play for the Heat. The Suns are favorites at home with 8.5 points as they now hold the league’s best record at 30-8. Crowder threw the highest plus / minus among the smaller forwards on FanDuel tonight and actually ranks fifth on the slate. Another game that looks risky, but Crowder brings value.
Upper ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Charlotte Hornets – $ 11,600 DraftKings, $ 11,700 FanDuel
Playing back to back, by far the most expensive player at both sites tonight is Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks had a lead over the Nets last night and Giannis only played 27 minutes. He was still phenomenal as he had 31 points, seven rebounds and nine assists. Giannis will be one of the most popular plays on the list regardless of the salary. I would recommend playing Giannis and being different elsewhere.
The Hornets present a fantastic showdown for Giannis. They rank 28th in defense and at 116.6 points per game, the worst in the league. They also lead the league at Pace and are second in most points allowed in transition. Giannis leads the league in most possessions and most points scored in transition. Without Jrue Holidays, Giannis started at the point guard last night. The price is steep, but the cap is incredible.
Best Value: Bobby Portis at Charlotte Hornets– $ 6,500 DraftKings, $ 5,500 FanDuel
Staying with the Bucks, another valuable game that’s bursting like crazy on FanDuel tonight is Bobby portis. His salary on FanDuel doesn’t make sense. He has a 95% windfall odds after a double-double with 25 points and 12 rebounds against the Nets. Its DraftKings price isn’t even that bad either, given how awesome this match is. Portis has the second plus / minus screened on FanDuel tonight.
Not only will Giannis feast there, but Portis should too. The Hornets sit last in rebound percentage this season as they have allowed their opponent the second most rebounds at 48.1 per game. The Hornets are also allowing the league’s top 3 points at 14.4 per game. Portis has scored at least two 3-pointers in four straight games. Portis are live to secure another double-double tonight.
Upper Cap: Domantas Sabonis vs. Utah Jazz – $ 10,200 DraftKings, $ 10,200 FanDuel
Besides Giannis, Domantas sabonis has been one of the slate’s most consistent players. Over the past five games, Sabonis is averaging 23.6 points, 13.0 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game. He took advantage of the loss of Malcolm brogdon as he increased all the statistics. Brogdon is expected to return tonight but hasn’t played since December 21, so a minute limit is on the table. I love Sabonis anyway, but if Brogdon is away his ceiling goes up.
The Jazz present a tough showdown on paper, but they’re playing with a save center that I’ll get that helps Sabonis. This game has the second highest total at 220.5 points. Sabonis is playing just too well to be ignored on this slate. It’s a place where I already love Sabonis, and if Brogdon and even Caris LeVert can’t go, Sabonis will be one of the best options on the board.
Best Value: Hassan Whiteside at Indiana Pacers – $ 3,500 DraftKings, $ 6,100 FanDuel
We’ve certainly saved the best for last, at least from a DraftKings perspective. Hassan whiteside is the best game on DraftKings that we’ve seen in a while in our model. The price differences between the sites are incredible. Whiteside has always been a points per minute monster of DraftKings and should now play 29 minutes because Jazz will continue to be without Rudy Gobert due to COVID protocols.
Whiteside leads the slate in Projected Over / Under and Points / Salary. In their game last night, Whiteside played 30 minutes but had a disappointing outing, scoring just seven points and grabbing seven rebounds. Don’t let poor performance intimidate you; Whiteside is the best game on the slate tonight. The Pacers have been excellent on the glass, but they are allowing the seventh most points in the paint this season at 48.4 per game.