MTI Wireless Edge Ltd. Embedded Value Estimate (LON: MWE)
The June price of MTI Wireless Edge Ltd. (LON: MWE) reflect its true value? Today we’re going to estimate the intrinsic value of the stock by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Patterns like these may seem beyond a layman’s comprehension, but they are fairly easy to follow.
Keep in mind, however, that there are many ways to estimate the value of a business and that a DCF is just one method. If you would like to know more about discounted cash flows, the rationale for this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
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What is the estimated valuation?
We use what is called a two-step model, which simply means that we have two different periods of growth rate for the cash flow of the business. Usually the first stage is higher growth and the second stage is lower growth stage. To begin with, we need to get cash flow estimates for the next ten years. Since no free cash flow analyst estimate is available, we have extrapolated the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last reported value of the company. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, so we discount the value of those future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars. hui:
10-year Free Cash Flow (FCF) estimate
|Leverage FCF ($, Millions)||US $ 4.53 million||4.44 million US dollars||4.39 million US dollars||4.37 million US dollars||4.36 million US dollars||4.37 million US dollars||4.39 million US dollars||US $ 4.42 million||US $ 4.45 million||US $ 4.48 million|
|Source of growth rate estimate||Is @ -3.22%||Is @ -1.98%||Is @ -1.11%||East @ -0.5%||East @ -0.07%||Est @ 0.22%||East @ 0.43%||Is @ 0.58%||East @ 0.68%||Is @ 0.75%|
|Present value (in millions of dollars) discounted at 5.8%||$ 4.3||$ 4.0||3.7 USD||3.5 USD||3.3 USD||US $ 3.1||US $ 3.0||2.8 USD||2.7 USD||2.5 USD|
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = US $ 32 million
The second stage is also known as terminal value, this is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.9%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to their present value, using a cost of equity of 5.8%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US $ 4.5 million × (1 + 0.9%) ÷ (5.8% – 0.9%) = US $ 92 million
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)ten= US $ 92 million ÷ (1 + 5.8%)ten= US $ 52 million
The total value is the sum of the cash flows for the next ten years plus the final present value, which gives the total value of equity, which in this case is US $ 84 million. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide it by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current UK £ 0.7 share price, the company appears to be around fair value at the time of writing. Remember, however, that this is only a rough estimate, and like any complex formula – trash in, trash out.
The above calculation is very dependent on two assumptions. One is the discount rate and the other is cash flow. You don’t have to agree with these entries, I recommend that you redo the calculations yourself and play with them. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view MTI Wireless Edge as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes into account debt. . In this calculation, we used 5.8%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 0.913. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our average beta from the industry beta of comparable companies globally, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
While a business valuation is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a business. It is not possible to achieve a rock-solid valuation with a DCF model. Instead, the best use of a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to undervaluation or overvaluation of the company. For example, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically change the overall result. For MTI Wireless Edge, we have compiled three relevant factors to consider:
- Risks: Note that MTI Wireless Edge displays 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , you must know…
- Future benefits: How does MWE’s growth rate compare to that of its peers and the broader market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth expectations chart.
- Other high quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality stocks to get a feel for what else you might be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every UK stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
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