Does Sports Betting Still Undervalue Phillies Playoff Odds?
After snatching five straight wins, the Phillies welcome the Mets tonight with a chance to take first place in the NL East for the first time since May 7. They also have the opportunity to win a season-high six straight game and move to four games over 0.500 for the first time since they were 5-1 on April 7. In other words, it’s a big loss at Citizens Bank Park tonight.
In the midst of the most encouraging run of the season for the Phillies, they also saw their playoff betting odds rise unsurprisingly. Here’s a look at how their award has evolved to win the division throughout the season at DraftKings Sportsbook:
Phillies playoff odds soar
Since losing five games at the top of the division following a miserable 13-12 loss to the Nationals on June 23 – David Hale’s game – the Division’s odds from the Phillies to DraftKings have gone down from +850 to +250.
Imagine having to check David Hale for sticky stuff after giving up 6 runs in a run pic.twitter.com/frPAhVkoLb
– Everything is fine (@evrythingsphine) June 23, 2021
Meanwhile, they have even shorter chances of winning the NL East on FanDuel Sportsbook, currently listed at +210 with the Braves, who are also behind the Mets at +110 odds.
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Interestingly, however, the Mets’ current position as a clear NL East favorite does not reflect the current playoff odds of a number of popular baseball screening websites.
- Baseball reference currently gives the Braves a 41.6% chance of making the playoffs, just ahead of the Phillies at 41.3%. The Mets are far behind with 17.7%.
- FiveThirtyEight gives the Braves the go-ahead at 39%, just ahead of the Phils at 37%. Once again, the Mets lag far behind at just 29%.
- FanGraphs plays it a little more faithful to the current standings with the Mets holding a 43.1% chance, ahead of the Phillies at 35.9% and the Braves at 26.1%.
Phillies Odds Bets Value
While all three sites feature a gap from the Phillies’ current playoff odds, each screening gives them the second best chance of reaching the playoffs among the NL East teams.
If you take the average of the three projections, the Phillies open their series against the Mets tonight with a 38.1% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Compare that number to the implied probability of their +250 odds of winning the NL East – their only real path to the playoffs – and there’s a clear value in locking down the Phillies. Why? Because the implied probability of +250 odds is only 28.6%, which means that bettors receive a larger payout than the baseball average projections suggest.
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For comparison, the post-season odds average of 38.1% from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and FiveThirtyEight showings carries a price tag of +162. This means that the bettors backing the Phillies today are currently poised to claw back an additional $ 88 in potential payout on a $ 100 bet.
Likewise, the Braves also present value based on their current price, while the average of the three projection formulas suggests that bettors are significantly overvaluing the Mets. For example, the Mets have on average only a 29.9% chance of reaching the playoffs, but are priced at -115. This 29.9% chance should bring a payout to +234.
In short, while it feels like buying the burgeoning Phillies or Braves in the middle of a hot streak as the Mets’ fight is a square move, the numbers suggest there are still plenty of bet value to be had in doing so.
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