Do investors undervalue Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ: BZUN) by 37%?
Does the September share price for Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ: BZUN) reflect what it is really worth? Today we’re going to estimate the intrinsic value of the stock by taking expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There really isn’t much to do, although it might seem quite complex.
We draw your attention to the fact that there are many ways to assess a business and, like DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St.
See our latest review for Baozun
What is the estimated valuation?
We use the 2-step growth model, which simply means that we take into account two stages of business growth. In the initial period, the business can have a higher growth rate, and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flow. Where possible, we use analyst estimates, but when these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or stated value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction, and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow down more in the early years than in subsequent years.
A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, and therefore the sum of those future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value. :
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Leverage FCF (CN ¥, Million)||CN ¥ 399.3m||CN ¥ 629.7m||CN ¥ 766.6m||CN ¥ 888.0m||CN ¥ 991.6m||CN ¥ 1.08b||CN ¥ 1.15b||CN ¥ 1.21b||CN ¥ 1.26b||CN ¥ 1.31b|
|Source of growth rate estimate||Analyst x3||Analyst x3||East @ 21.75%||Est @ 15.82%||East @ 11.67%||Est @ 8.77%||Est @ 6.74%||East @ 5.31%||East @ 4.32%||East @ 3.62%|
|Present value (CN ¥, million) discounted at 8.3%||CN ¥ 369||CN ¥ 537||CN ¥ 604||CN ¥ 646||CN ¥ 666||CN ¥ 669||CN ¥ 659||CN ¥ 641||CN ¥ 618||CN ¥ 591|
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year present value of cash flows (PVCF) = CN ¥ 6.0b
The second stage is also known as terminal value, this is the cash flow of the business after the first stage. The Gordon growth formula is used to calculate the terminal value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to their present value at a cost of equity of 8.3%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN ¥ 1.3b × (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.3% – 2.0%) = CN ¥ 21b
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)ten= CN ¥ 21b ÷ (1 + 8.3%)ten= CN ¥ 9.6b
Total value, or net worth, is then the sum of the present value of future cash flows, which in this case is CN ¥ 16b. In the last step, we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US $ 19.4, the company appears to be quite undervalued with a 37% discount from the current share price. Ratings are imprecise instruments, however, much like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in another galaxy. Keep this in mind.
We would like to stress that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own assessment of a company’s future performance, so try the math yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we view Baozun as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 8.3%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.166. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock relative to the market as a whole. We get our average beta from the industry beta of comparable companies globally, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
To move on :
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it’s just one of the many factors you need to evaluate for a business. The DCF model is not a perfect equity valuation tool. Instead, the best use of a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to undervaluation or overvaluation of the company. For example, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically change the overall result. What is the reason why the stock price is below intrinsic value? For Baozun, we’ve put together three more things you should take a closer look at:
- Risks: For example, we have identified 2 warning signs for Baozun that you need to be aware of.
- Future benefits: How does BZUN’s growth rate compare to that of its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for years to come by interacting with our free analyst growth expectations chart.
- Other high quality alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high-quality stocks to get a feel for what else you might be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every US stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts using only unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell shares and does not take into account your goals or your financial situation. Our aim is to bring you long-term, targeted analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price sensitive companies or qualitative material. Simply Wall St does not have any position in the mentioned stocks.
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