Calculation of the intrinsic value of Aquafil SpA (BIT:ECNL)
What is the distance between Aquafil SpA (BIT:ECNL) and its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we will examine whether the stock price is fair by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to the present value. On this occasion, we will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it’s not too hard to follow, as you’ll see in our example!
We generally believe that the value of a company is the present value of all the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one of many evaluation metrics, and it is not without its flaws. Anyone interested in learning a little more about intrinsic value should read the Simply Wall St.
Check out our latest analysis for Aquafil
The model
We will use a two-stage DCF model which, as the name suggests, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is usually a period of higher growth which stabilizes towards the terminal value, captured in the second period of “sustained growth”. In the first step, we need to estimate the company’s cash flow over the next ten years. Wherever possible, we use analysts’ estimates, but where these are not available, we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the latest estimate or reported value. We assume that companies with decreasing free cash flow will slow their rate of contraction and companies with increasing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow during this period. We do this to reflect the fact that growth tends to slow more in early years than in later years.
A DCF is based on the idea that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at an estimate of present value:
Estimated free cash flow (FCF) over 10 years
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |
Leveraged FCF (€, Millions) | €30.0 million | €25.5 million | €43.0m | €42.6 million | €42.5 million | €42.7 million | €43.0 million | €43.5 million | €44.0 million | €44.6 million |
Growth rate estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Is @ -0.97% | East @ -0.17% | Is at 0.38% | Is at 0.78% | Is at 1.05% | Is at 1.24% | Is at 1.38% |
Present value (€, millions) discounted at 12% | 26.8 € | 20.4 € | 30.8 € | 27.3 € | 24.4 € | 21.9 € | 19.8 € | 17.9 € | 16.2 € | 14.7 € |
(“East” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
10-year discounted cash flow (PVCF) = €220 million
After calculating the present value of future cash flows over the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the terminal value, which takes into account all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons, a very conservative growth rate is used which cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case, we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.7%) to estimate future growth. Similar to the 10-year “growth” period, we discount future cash flows to present value, using a cost of equity of 12%.
Terminal value (TV)= FCF_{2031} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €45m × (1 + 1.7%) ÷ (12%– 1.7%) = €451m
Present value of terminal value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{ten}= €451m÷ ( 1 + 12%)^{ten}= €148 million
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the discounted value of future cash flows, which in this case is €368 million. The final step is to divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €6.7, the company appears to be approximately fair value at a 7.7% discount to the current share price. Ratings are imprecise instruments, however, much like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Keep that in mind.
Important assumptions
We emphasize that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these entries, I recommend you redo the calculations yourself and play around with them. The DCF also does not take into account the possible cyclicality of an industry or the future capital needs of a company, so it does not give a complete picture of a company’s potential performance. Since we consider Aquafil as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which takes debt into account. In this calculation, we used 12%, which is based on a leveraged beta of 1.567. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility relative to the market as a whole. We derive our beta from the average industry beta of broadly comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable company.
Let’s move on :
While important, calculating DCF shouldn’t be the only metric to consider when researching a business. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather, it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions must be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk-free rate can have a significant impact on the valuation. For Aquafil, we have compiled three essential elements that you should evaluate:
- Risks: Be aware that Aquafil displays 3 warning signs in our investment analysis you should know…
- Future earnings: How does ECNL’s growth rate compare to its peers and the market in general? Dive deeper into the analyst consensus figure for the coming years by interacting with our free analyst growth forecast chart.
- Other strong companies: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are essential to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with strong trading fundamentals to see if there are any other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app performs a daily updated cash flow valuation for each stock on the BIT. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks, search here.
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This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.